710
FXUS63 KPAH 240430
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TO WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
THE RULE.
- STRONGER STORM CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST NEXT TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TMRW, BRINGING CONTINUED WARMTH AND
ADDING A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY. WITH IT, COMES A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY AND MAKES PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING
SAID CHANCES UNTIL PASSAGE; THAT'S THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN BUT
WE ARE ONLY UNDER AN SPC GENERAL RISK OF STORMS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF THE WEEKEND WITH A
COOLER DAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BEFOREHAND RANGING ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER, FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, FOR SATURDAY.
WE START TO WARM UP AGAIN THEREAFTER, RESUMING HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS WILL KICK INTO THE 60S
AND SO THAT'LL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH AND
ENCOUNTER A WARM/JUICY AIR MASS BY MID WEEK...A 15% DAY7 SEVERE
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED THAT INDICATES STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. WE'LL SEE WHERE THAT ENDS UP LINING
UP AS THE AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS WRITING EXTENDS FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TO LAKE ERIE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD BASES WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT,
WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z WITH BASES INITIALLY AROUND
2500FT. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT MVFR FOG AT CGI, PAH, AND
EVV, BETWEEN 12-15Z BASED ON MODEL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME
S-SSE AROUND 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. A FEW STRAY STORMS MAY IMPACT PAH, EVV, AND
OWB IN THE 18-24Z WINDOW, SO HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS TO THOSE
TERMINALS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
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