679
FXUS63 KPAH 240704
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MID 80S BY MONDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TURN MORE WIDESPREAD
ON FRIDAY. A GREATER RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BRINING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
OVERALL THE DAY LOOKS FAR FROM A WASHOUT. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH A GREATER RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE CLUSTER
MOVING THROUGH TO START THE DAY WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN THE
FRONT APPROACHES.
SPC MAINTAINS "GENERAL THUNDER" FOR THE ENTIRE FA, BUT WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONGER STORM DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. MLCAPE REMAINS
1000-1500 J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AROUND 25 KTS. SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES ALSO ARE A BIT
STEEPER BETWEEN 7.0-8.0 C/KM. AS FOR THE RAINFALL, QPF HAS
TRENDED LIGHTER BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ON AVERAGE. GIVEN
THAT PCPN APPEARS TO BE MORE SCATTERED AND IN INTERVALS, BLENDED
NBM'S WIDESPREAD "CATEGORICAL" POPS A CATEGORY LOWER FOR MOST
OF THE FA, AS THIS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY COMPARED
TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY PUSHING PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MOST OF THE WEEKEND ALSO LOOKS
TO BE DRY WITH ISOLATED SLIGHT POPS ONLY PROGGED BY THE NBM
NOW.
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TO
START OFF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE FA. A AMPLIFIED
500 MB TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS COLORADO WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BETTER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THE
KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL LINE UP FOR THE FA AS TIMING
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD BASES WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT,
WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z WITH BASES INITIALLY AROUND
2500FT. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT MVFR FOG AT CGI, PAH, AND
EVV, BETWEEN 12-15Z BASED ON MODEL AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME
S-SSE AROUND 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. A FEW STRAY STORMS MAY IMPACT PAH, EVV, AND
OWB IN THE 18-24Z WINDOW, SO HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS TO THOSE
TERMINALS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS
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