144
FXUS63 KPAH 241040
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MID 80S BY MONDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TURN MORE WIDESPREAD
ON FRIDAY. A GREATER RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BRINING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
OVERALL THE DAY LOOKS FAR FROM A WASHOUT. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH A GREATER RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE CLUSTER
MOVING THROUGH TO START THE DAY WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN THE
FRONT APPROACHES.
SPC MAINTAINS "GENERAL THUNDER" FOR THE ENTIRE FA, BUT WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STRONGER STORM DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. MLCAPE REMAINS
1000-1500 J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AROUND 25 KTS. SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES ALSO ARE A BIT
STEEPER BETWEEN 7.0-8.0 C/KM. AS FOR THE RAINFALL, QPF HAS
TRENDED LIGHTER BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ON AVERAGE. GIVEN
THAT PCPN APPEARS TO BE MORE SCATTERED AND IN INTERVALS, BLENDED
NBM'S WIDESPREAD "CATEGORICAL" POPS A CATEGORY LOWER FOR MOST
OF THE FA, AS THIS SEEMS WAY OVERDONE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY COMPARED
TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY PUSHING PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MOST OF THE WEEKEND ALSO LOOKS
TO BE DRY WITH ISOLATED SLIGHT POPS ONLY PROGGED BY THE NBM
NOW.
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TO
START OFF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE FA. A AMPLIFIED
500 MB TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS COLORADO WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BETTER MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THE
KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL LINE UP FOR THE FA AS TIMING
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL AFTER 16Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY KPAH/KEVV/KOWB, BUT COVERAGE
OVERALL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE
SCATTERED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH A 40-50% PROBABILITY ON THE 0Z HREF. MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT THICKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A
MORE WIDESPREAD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 10-12Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5-10 KTS TODAY,
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3 KTS TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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