585
FXUS63 KPAH 241830
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL, EXCEPTING THIS
WEEKEND'S COOL DOWN. 80S RETURN TO THE FORECAST DAILY OVER
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH TIME THRU FRIDAY. A GREATER RISK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ARRIVES LATE NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
CURRENTLY WARM SECTORING FEATURES DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S NOSING INTO SEMO WITH SOME NEAR 70F READINGS CLOSEBY IN THE
BOOTHEEL. ANTICIPATE AN ANYTIME CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT-TMRW, EFFECTIVELY RAMPING UP POPS THEN. POPS
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TIL ITS PASSAGE TMRW EVENING. TEMPS MAY BE
TAMPED DOWN A TAD DUE TO THE CLOUDS WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE 70S TMRW...WHILE DEW POINTS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LEADS TO A DRIER AND COOLER
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
48 HOUR HIGHS...RANGING FOM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF 70S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
THEREAFTER, LEADING TO A NEW WEEK WARMUP BACK TO SEASONAL AND
THEN ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS HEADING INTO NEXT PCPN CHANCES COMING
IN BY TUESDAY. WE STILL HOLD THE NOW DAY 5 SLIGHT RISK MENTION
FOR THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT POPS, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND UPON
THE DAY 4 PLAY-OUT OF CONVECTION AS THE DAY 5 SLIGHT RUNS FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO LAKE ERIE...THIS AREA WILL
NO DOUBT HONE IN WITH TIME BUT OFFERS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. 80S THAT MARK THEIR RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS CHANCE COOL BACK TO 70S FOR HIGHS AFTER THE
SYSTEM'S MID TO LATE WEEK CONVECTION AND ULTIMATELY, SYSTEM
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SCATTERED WARM SECTOR SHOWERS/CHANCE OF STORMS WILL INDUCE FROM
LOWER VFR BASES, WHILE HIGHER MID LEVEL BASES MAY PROVIDE
OCCASIONAL CIGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. POPS RAMP UP
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH, AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND RESTRICTED
BASES/POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS HEADING INTO/THRU THE PLANNING
PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ORIENTED GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND MAY VEER
A LITTLE AND PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTINESS AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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