068
FXUS63 KPAH 242312
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL, EXCEPTING THIS
WEEKEND'S COOL DOWN. 80S RETURN TO THE FORECAST DAILY OVER
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH TIME THRU FRIDAY. A GREATER RISK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ARRIVES LATE NEXT TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
CURRENTLY WARM SECTORING FEATURES DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S NOSING INTO SEMO WITH SOME NEAR 70F READINGS CLOSEBY IN THE
BOOTHEEL. ANTICIPATE AN ANYTIME CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT-TMRW, EFFECTIVELY RAMPING UP POPS THEN. POPS
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TIL ITS PASSAGE TMRW EVENING. TEMPS MAY BE
TAMPED DOWN A TAD DUE TO THE CLOUDS WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE 70S TMRW...WHILE DEW POINTS HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LEADS TO A DRIER AND COOLER
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
48 HOUR HIGHS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER HALF 70S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
THEREAFTER, LEADING TO A NEW WEEK WARMUP BACK TO SEASONAL AND
THEN ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS HEADING INTO NEXT PCPN CHANCES COMING
IN BY TUESDAY. WE STILL HOLD THE NOW DAY 5 SLIGHT RISK MENTION
FOR THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT POPS, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND UPON
THE DAY 4 PLAY-OUT OF CONVECTION AS THE DAY 5 SLIGHT RUNS FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO LAKE ERIE...THIS AREA WILL
NO DOUBT HONE IN WITH TIME BUT OFFERS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. 80S THAT MARK THEIR RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS CHANCE COOL BACK TO 70S FOR HIGHS AFTER THE
SYSTEM'S MID TO LATE WEEK CONVECTION AND ULTIMATELY, SYSTEM
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09-18Z, WITH A GRADUAL WANE IN COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. HAVE HANDLED THE LIGHTNING RISK WITH PROB30 GROUPS
FOR NOW, BUT PERIOD OF TSRA MAY BE INTRODUCED WITH LATER
FORECASTS. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN
COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING S
TO SW AROUND 5-10 KTS AFTER 12Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
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