657
FXUS63 KPAH 251028
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
528 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED. DAILY 80S RETURN TO START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING TURN
MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- A GREATER RISK FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARRIVES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR AN AREA OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FA. THE CAMS THEN SHOW PCPN TURNING MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED DRIER. REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE CONVT
EVENTUALLY BEING REACHED THIS EVENING, BUT THE ONLY REAL FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHEN A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00-05Z TONIGHT. OVERALL, THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH OF QPF
PROGGED ON AVERAGE.
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF COOLER AS A 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.
A WARM SECTOR REGIME WILL SETTLE OVER THE FA TO START OF NEXT WEEK
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. NBM REMAINS PERSISTENT IN 850 MB TEMPS
ABOVE 15C TRANSLATING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE FA.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING WELL
INTO THE 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BARLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED
WITH A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SETTING THE
STAGE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE 0Z GFS NOW SHOWS ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND IF CI CAN OCCUR QUICK ENOUGH BEFORE
INSTABILITY WANES AT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS ON
WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
SOUTH AGAIN. THIS MAY POSE ANOTHER SEVERE RISK DEPENDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM SECTOR IS WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE SEASONABLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AT TIMES.
RAIN TURNS MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AS LOW CIGS GIVE WAY TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS
BECOME NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AFTER BRIEFLY TURNING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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