844  
FXUS63 KPAH 251729  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COOL DOWN IS  
EXPECTED. DAILY 80S RETURN TO START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING TURN  
MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH OF  
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.  
 
- A GREATER RISK FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARRIVES  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025  
 
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR AN AREA OF  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE FA. THE CAMS THEN SHOW PCPN TURNING MORE SCATTERED THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, THE  
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS MODEL GUIDANCE  
HAS TRENDED DRIER. REDEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH  
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE CONVT  
EVENTUALLY BEING REACHED THIS EVENING, BUT THE ONLY REAL FORCING  
MECHANISM WILL BE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WHEN A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00-05Z TONIGHT. OVERALL, THE BULK OF  
THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH OF QPF  
PROGGED ON AVERAGE.  
 
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF COOLER AS A 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER  
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC  
FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN  
KENTUCKY.  
 
A WARM SECTOR REGIME WILL SETTLE OVER THE FA TO START OF NEXT WEEK  
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. NBM REMAINS PERSISTENT IN 850 MB TEMPS  
ABOVE 15C TRANSLATING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOW TO MID 80S AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE FA.  
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING WELL  
INTO THE 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BARLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S  
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED  
WITH A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SETTING THE  
STAGE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE REMAINS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE 0Z GFS NOW SHOWS ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF  
MLCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE  
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND IF CI CAN OCCUR QUICK ENOUGH BEFORE  
INSTABILITY WANES AT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS ON  
WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT  
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH  
SOUTH AGAIN. THIS MAY POSE ANOTHER SEVERE RISK DEPENDING HOW FAR  
NORTH THE WARM SECTOR IS WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO  
NEAR 80 BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING MORE SEASONABLE BY THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES PASSAGE  
ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NORTHERLY  
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER  
06Z SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO  
TOMORROW MORNING.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...DW  
AVIATION...SP  
 
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