436
FXUS63 KPAH 260816
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOLER WEEKEND IS IN STORE BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE PENNYRILE, ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE IN OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE REGION SUNDAY,
AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE NON-EXISTENT, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 850MB TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON,
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IN HOW FAR EAST THE
SHOWERS WILL PUSH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD
THEM UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE QUAD STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S. SOME UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.
THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
COMBINE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH TOWARD THE QUAD STATE.
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. EITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE THAT GREAT, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO MANY EVENTS WE HAVE HAD
SO FAR THIS SEASON. HOWEVER, SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE NBM PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT THAT MAY BE ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE, SO IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING FOR THE BOUNDARY TO HANG UP OVER THE QUAD STATE. A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CERTAINLY COULD LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT MAINLY OVER
THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE OVER 2" OF RAIN
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE 1-2" OF
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY ONLY SEE 0.5"-0.75".
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE THURSDAY EVENING. ITS APPROACH WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ITS GREATEST ON THURSDAY, BUT INSTABILITY
COULD BE HARD TO ACHIEVE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE CERTAINLY IS A
CHANCE OF MORE SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY, BUT THERE ARE A LOT
MORE POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS COMPARED TO TUESDAY'S LIKELY SEVERE
EVENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM, A VERY SKINNY RIDGE ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS, WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND OVER THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER, ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTERED AND LIFT TO VFR IN THE 17-21Z WINDOW, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
N-NW OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 7-12 KTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS
WILL AGAIN RELAX AFTER 24Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
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