511
FXUS63 KPAH 261652
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, BEST CHANCE
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
- CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MOST LIKELY.
- DRY AND NOT AS WARM NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST MO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BEST CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF WEAK
CONVECTION MORE UNCERTAIN AS DRIER AIR PERSISTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.
IT TURNS MUCH WARMER MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST, SOME CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT TO OUR I-64 COUNTIES
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IT MAY BE THAT BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH, AS A SYSTEM OUT WEST TAKES AIM ON THE AREA, REACHING OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE
ON AND OFF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FULL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER, PARAMETERS SEEM FAIRLY MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTED OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST MO
WHILE DRIER AIR HAS WORKED OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN TO SOUTHEAST MO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CIGS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST 4 TO 8 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...CN
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