813
FXUS63 KPAH 262307
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, BEST CHANCE
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
- CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MOST LIKELY.
- DRY AND NOT AS WARM NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST MO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK IMPULSE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BEST CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF WEAK
CONVECTION MORE UNCERTAIN AS DRIER AIR PERSISTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.
IT TURNS MUCH WARMER MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST, SOME CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT TO OUR I-64 COUNTIES
LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IT MAY BE THAT BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH, AS A SYSTEM OUT WEST TAKES AIM ON THE AREA, REACHING OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE
ON AND OFF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FULL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER, PARAMETERS SEEM FAIRLY MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM
THE WEST WILL IMPACT CGI AND PAH MAINLY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AT CGI, BUT IT IS TOO MINOR TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM
THE E-NE AROUND 6-12 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...DWS
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