303
FXUS63 KPAH 270808
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- DRY AND NOT AS WARM NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LARGER-
SCALE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, EFFECTIVELY
WIPING OUT THE DISTURBANCE BY THE END OF THE DAY. WITH A DRY
EASTERLY FETCH IN THE LOW-LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS.
DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE QUAD STATE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY, 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY, PUTTING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
GIVEN MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT, CAPPING SHOULD BE LIMITED, SO
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE PRIMARILY RELATED TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
TROUGH WITH A LARGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, BUT THAT COULD
GET STARTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SERIOUSLY MUDDLE
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY. IF IT HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD AGAIN
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DESCEND ON THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS INTO FRIDAY IN THE EAST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A BLOCKY
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY AND
SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
VFR CLOUD BASES AND VSBYS REMAIN FORECAST, BUT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST
WILL IMPACT CGI AND PAH MAINLY AFTER 15 TO 18Z SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY 24Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES THEREAFTER. LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E AFTER 12Z AND EVENTUALLY ESE AFTER 18Z,
AROUND 4-9 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
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