113
FXUS63 KPAH 271359
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
859 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- DRY AND NOT AS WARM NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
RAISED POPS FOR RAIN (MOSTLY LIGHT) THIS MORNING AS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN FROM SW ILLINOIS. ONLY EXPECTED A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS, WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AS IT HEADS FOR SW INDIANA.
WEST PLAINS, MO PICKED UP A 1/10TH OF RAIN WITH SOME THUNDER IN
THE AREA. UPPED POPS FOR SEMO JUST A BIT AND EXTENDED THAT
HIGHER TREND INTO FAR WEST KY AS THE HRRR MAINTAINS THE RAIN
ACTIVITY, ALBEIT LIGHT, INTO WEST KY. SO IT'S RAISED POPS FOR
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF .05" OR LESS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE ACTIVITY, AS IT MOVES EAST,
WILL DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LARGER-
SCALE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, EFFECTIVELY
WIPING OUT THE DISTURBANCE BY THE END OF THE DAY. WITH A DRY
EASTERLY FETCH IN THE LOW-LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS.
DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE QUAD STATE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY, 1000-2000J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY, PUTTING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
GIVEN MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT, CAPPING SHOULD BE LIMITED, SO
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE PRIMARILY RELATED TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
TROUGH WITH A LARGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, BUT THAT COULD
GET STARTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SERIOUSLY MUDDLE
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY. IF IT HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD AGAIN
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DESCEND ON THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS INTO FRIDAY IN THE EAST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A BLOCKY
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY AND
SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
THE TAFS ARE VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FLIRT WITH KCGI, KMVN, AND KPAH
THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY,
POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 4-5KFT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE AT KPAH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS AROUND
10KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY AND BE
LIGHT TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...CN
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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