146
FXUS63 KPAH 280815
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS MORNING AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME 15-25 MPH GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S, AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. IT WILL FEEL
RATHER HOT AND HUMID, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
THE PICTURE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK IS QUITE MUDDLED WITH
NUMEROUS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS
LITTLE CLARITY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH COULD ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THE ACTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESUMABLY THERE WOULD BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF IT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AT BEST, THE
SHEAR MAY JUST BARELY SUPPORT A ROTATING UPDRAFT AT TIMES, BUT
IN GENERAL WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAN
SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000J/KG OF CAPE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, SO
THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN.
THE ACTIVE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE QUAD
STATE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH IT. HOW QUICKLY THAT HAPPENS IS IN DOUBT AND IF
IT IS SLOW TO GO, THEN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COULD DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH MORE CONVECTION
INTO THE QUAD STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT GOING INTO THURSDAY.
IT WILL LIKELY BE WET ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY
THURSDAY, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLOODING ISSUES THURSDAY, BUT THEY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD STILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON FRIDAY.
A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WITH RATHER DEEP TROUGHS FLANKING IT. WE
WILL INITIALLY BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE UPPER
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO MIGRATE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
LOWS AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
LOW TO MID VFR CLOUD DECKS AND LIGHT ESE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONGER S WINDS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22
KTS FORECAST AFTER 15Z. DIURNAL CU WILL ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
WITH BASES AROUND 3000FT INITIALLY, INCREASING WITH DIURNAL
MIXING TO AROUND 5000FT AFTER 18Z, WITH DIMINISH AFTER 24Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page