509
FXUS63 KPAH 021718
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SUPPRESSED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TREND MORE SEASONABLE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH MORE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STALLED SFC FRONT LIFTING OUT, MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HAZY SKIES WILL ALSO BE
PROBABLE AGAIN DUE TO THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE, BUT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, WINDS TURN MORE BREEZY WITH
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN SUPPRESSED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A SERIES OF
500 MB SHORTWAVES BEGIN EJECTING TOWARDS THE FA FROM THE WEST
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, NBM POPS PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.
STILL NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH
MEAGER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES, BUT THE 00Z GFS IS HINTING AT SOME
LOW END MARGINAL POTENTIAL PERHAPS ON FRIDAY WITH 1000-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR. AT THE VERY
LEAST, MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 17 TO 18 G/KG AND PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES MAY YIELD SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, THE
CMC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FROPA ON FRIDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR
STRONGER STORMS REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER TOWARDS THE GFS. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF SUNDAY, THE LREF
INDICATES A 70 TO 90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL AND 30 TO 50% FOR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE PROGGED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING MORE SEASONABLE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE TAFS ARE VFR. HAZY SKIES FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ONLY FEW-SCT
CU DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH THIS AFTERNOON (BASES WILL BE AROUND
4000FT). ADDITION CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH HEATING OF THE
DAY TUESDAY, AFTER 15Z OR SO. STEADY S TO SE WINDS AOA 6-10 KTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY
FROM THE SOUTH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS
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