840
FXUS63 KPAH 021824
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
124 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.
- A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE
(40-70%) OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
- WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW DURING THIS
TIME, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES IS FORECAST,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
H5 RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ONGOING
HIGH-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT WILL FINALLY DIMINISH BY TUESDAY.
A TURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALL
OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE (40-80%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW/UNCERTAIN, THE RISK FOR AREAS OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING FROM TRAINING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING.
AIDING IN THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN BEING DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS EXTRA MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES AND HIGHER TOTALS. THE LATEST QPF SHOWS A BROAD BRUSH
OF 1.5 TO 3.0" OVER THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 4.0" IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WHILE
THE RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS, THE RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL RISE AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER
SATURATED GROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER DURING
THIS PERIOD DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE TAFS ARE VFR. HAZY SKIES FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ONLY FEW-SCT
CU DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH THIS AFTERNOON (BASES WILL BE AROUND
4000FT). ADDITION CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH HEATING OF THE
DAY TUESDAY, AFTER 15Z OR SO. STEADY S TO SE WINDS AOA 6-10 KTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY
FROM THE SOUTH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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