865
FXUS63 KPAH 030531
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1231 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
- A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE
(40-70%) OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
- WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW DURING THIS
TIME, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES IS FORECAST,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
H5 RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ONGOING
HIGH-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT WILL FINALLY DIMINISH BY TUESDAY.
A TURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALL
OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE (40-80%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW/UNCERTAIN, THE RISK FOR AREAS OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING FROM TRAINING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING.
AIDING IN THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN BEING DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS EXTRA MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES AND HIGHER TOTALS. THE LATEST QPF SHOWS A BROAD BRUSH
OF 1.5 TO 3.0" OVER THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 4.0" IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WHILE
THE RAINFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS, THE RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL RISE AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER
SATURATED GROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER DURING
THIS PERIOD DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
BREEZY DURING THE DAY, GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS. HIGH ELEVATION
SMOKE CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MODELS SHOWING A SOUTH
TO NORTH DRIFT OF LOWER ELEVATION HAZE/SMOKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AROUND 4000-6500 FT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL
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