600
FXUS63 KPAH 041723
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
(60-80%) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE (20-40%)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- A STRAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. THE
OVERALL RISK IS PROBABLY THE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA, AND A FEW MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IA AHEAD OF TWO MODEST JET MAXIMA
(90-100 KT WESTERLIES) OVER NE AND OK IS SLOWLY MOVING A FRONT
EASTWARD OUT OF MO/KS AND TOWARDS THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THAT FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY INTENSITY AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA REMAINS MODEST. INCREASING UPPER ASCENT WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY THOUGH AND A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
RESIDUAL CAPPING AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY WORK AGAINST US
INITIALLY IN TERMS OF COVERAGE BUT BY 3-4 PM THINGS SHOULD BE
SPARKING ALONG. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER 60S
WITH FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR. WITH
THAT SETUP A STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SOME DEGREE OF DOWNBURST
WIND BUT THE OVERALL BUOYANCY APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. PERSISTENT
JET-LEVEL LIFT AND LAYER WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT LOOK
TO KEEP A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 70 OR 72 BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE RESIDUAL FRONT STILL IN VICINITY. FROM THE
WAY THINGS ARE ALIGNED IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON LULL WITH ANOTHER ROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING, SOME MODEST SEVERE RISK EXISTS BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING.
WE WILL DO IT AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD FOR NOW LOOKS
TO HAVE THE OVERALL BEST MIX OF AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN STILL MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO THE POINT THAT THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS MUTED. IN
A WORST-CASE SCENARIO INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY POSE A
MODEST RISK OF SOME SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS AND AN EASTWARD
MOVING MCS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A MORE DEFINITIVE
SHORTWAVE FINALLY MOVES THROUGH AND CLEARS THE REGION OUT. THE
ECMWF DOES THIS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE GFS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH ON MONDAY GIVING US SOME RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES BUT
BOTH PUSH THIS STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
PWATS INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.7-2.0 INCHES DURING THIS WETTER PERIOD
SO EFFICIENT/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT. THE
COVERAGE/MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS BUT SOMEWHERE WILL PROBABLY CATCH
THE RIGHT SEQUENCE OF STORMS TO HAVE A FEW ISSUES BETWEEN NOW
AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CONVECTION AND LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LIKELY AFTER 21-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING VFR WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
BETWEEN 09-13Z WITH POSSIBLY POCKETS OF IFR AT MVN.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 9-12 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...AD
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