617
FXUS63 KPAH 050705
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EXISTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS RISK MAY ALSO REEMERGE ON SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FEW MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA SEEMS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PRODUCING THE MAXIMUM ASCENT THAT IT WILL FOR THE
AREA. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
PRODUCING VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER CORRIDOR THEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 800 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH
WEAK, IF ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES ARE 1.9
TO 2.0 INCHES. SHEAR FIELDS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE BRIEFLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SWIN AND NORTHWEST KY THROUGH 5 AM OR SO. FLOODING IS THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY. A SURFACE FRONT IS JUST
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY.
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THIS LEADING WAVE OF ACTIVITY TO START
TO TAPER OFF AND THEN NEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REFORM IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE GENERALLY
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WORKING INTO
THE LOW 70S. A TOUCH OF INCREASED JET LEVEL ASCENT IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY WORK TO FOCUS/INCREASE
COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER 3-4 PM, BUT MOSTLY WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT STANDARD POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL SEEMS PRETTY LIMITED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DCAPE AND FAIRLY WEAK AMBIENT SHEAR.
A STEP DOWN IN ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MORE
ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS
STEEPEN HEIGHT/WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN GIVING US DECENT
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PEAK ASCENT THOUGH WILL PROBABLY BE
15-18Z LOCALLY SO WE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT LIMITED TIMELINE TO
DESTABLIZE FROM INSOLATION. NEVERTHELESS WE SHOW ABOUT 1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH MODERATE WESTERLY DEEP AND LOW SHEAR AND A SMALL
FOCUSED SHORTWAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE SINGING THE SONG OF MCS
POTENTIAL ALONG THE MOSTLY WEST TO EAST DRAPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA BUT
WE WILL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER. IF THIS
WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND GIVES US MORE TIME FOR DESTABLIZATION THEN
WE MAY HAVE MORE OF A THREAT EMERGE.
A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY IS CLEARLY TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FROM 24 HOURS AGO
GIVING US A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WHAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF
ANOTHER MCS OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM CELLS. THE CURRENT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SETUP MAY WORK OUT WHERE WE GET
MORE SUN BEFORE THUNDER ROLLS IN ON SATURDAY BUT THE ENTIRE
PATTERN IS VERY FICKLE AND DIFFUSE SO ITS OBVIOUSLY PRETTY HARD
TO GET A CLEAN READ ON IT AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM THE STRONG,
TRACKABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/JET MAXIMA OF THE COLD/SPRING SEASON AND
INTO THE LUMBERING MESS THAT IS SUMMER.
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND KIND OF KEEP THE THICKEST HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
SOUTH, BUT ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE SKEPTICAL FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CONVECTION, LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT EACH OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY TO IFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC
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