621
FXUS63 KPAH 051120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EXISTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS RISK MAY ALSO REEMERGE ON SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FEW MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA SEEMS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PRODUCING THE MAXIMUM ASCENT THAT IT WILL FOR THE
AREA. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
PRODUCING VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER CORRIDOR THEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 800 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH
WEAK, IF ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES ARE 1.9
TO 2.0 INCHES. SHEAR FIELDS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE BRIEFLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SWIN AND NORTHWEST KY THROUGH 5 AM OR SO. FLOODING IS THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY. A SURFACE FRONT IS JUST
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY.
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THIS LEADING WAVE OF ACTIVITY TO START
TO TAPER OFF AND THEN NEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REFORM IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE GENERALLY
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WORKING INTO
THE LOW 70S. A TOUCH OF INCREASED JET LEVEL ASCENT IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY WORK TO FOCUS/INCREASE
COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER 3-4 PM, BUT MOSTLY WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT STANDARD POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL SEEMS PRETTY LIMITED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DCAPE AND FAIRLY WEAK AMBIENT SHEAR.
A STEP DOWN IN ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MORE
ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS
STEEPEN HEIGHT/WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN GIVING US DECENT
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PEAK ASCENT THOUGH WILL PROBABLY BE
15-18Z LOCALLY SO WE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT LIMITED TIMELINE TO
DESTABILIZE FROM INSOLATION. NEVERTHELESS WE SHOW ABOUT 1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH MODERATE WESTERLY DEEP AND LOW SHEAR AND A
SMALL FOCUSED SHORTWAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE SINGING THE SONG OF MCS
POTENTIAL ALONG THE MOSTLY WEST TO EAST DRAPED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL MOSTLY LOOKS TO BE OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA BUT WE WILL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL AND AND ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER. IF THIS WAVE SLOWS DOWN AND GIVES US MORE TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION THEN WE MAY HAVE MORE OF A THREAT EMERGE.
A SECOND WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY IS CLEARLY TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FROM 24 HOURS AGO
GIVING US A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WHAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF
ANOTHER MCS OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM CELLS. THE CURRENT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SETUP MAY WORK OUT WHERE WE GET
MORE SUN BEFORE THUNDER ROLLS IN ON SATURDAY BUT THE ENTIRE
PATTERN IS VERY FICKLE AND DIFFUSE SO ITS OBVIOUSLY PRETTY HARD
TO GET A CLEAN READ ON IT AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM THE STRONG,
TRACKABLE TROUGH/RIDGE/JET MAXIMA OF THE COLD/SPRING SEASON AND
INTO THE LUMBERING MESS THAT IS SUMMER.
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND KIND OF KEEP THE THICKEST HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
SOUTH, BUT ITS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE SKEPTICAL FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE DODGY TODAY. CONVECTION
PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A FRONT THAT IS STALLED OVER THE
AREA. IFR AND LOW MVFR CEILINGS HAVE FORMED UP ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE MUCH FOR THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY STARTING TO MOVE TO THE NORTH LATER
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DROP TO
1-3 MILES AND THE PREVAILING CIG MAY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS START TO FORM
UP IN THE AFTERNOON. A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY BE A FACTOR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE STALLED FRONT STILL IN THE AREA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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