613
FXUS63 KPAH 060426
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1126 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER RISK POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70'S TO LOW 80 DEGREES. A MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60'S/LOW 70'S. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AT THIS TIME. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES
SOUTH A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH A LULL IN SHOWERS/STORMS. GUIDANCE
HAS PICKED UP ON SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ITS EXPECTED THAT AN
MCS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RENEWED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS THE REMNANT MCS CIRCULATION MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPE IS PUSHING 2000
J/KG, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KNOTS, PUSHING
60 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A 60-70 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS, OF COURSE A TORNADO OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THE LATER
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE HIGHER THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY BE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS OR CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
THAT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK WHICH COVERS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. BEYOND SATURDAY,
TROUGHING SETS UP TO OUR NORTH WITH AT LEAST A FEW SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW. ANY OF THESE MAY PRESENT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80'S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION ARRIVE. THE GREATEST RISK IS FROM
FRIDAY AROUND 14Z TO AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. THAT IS A LONG PERIOD
WITH PREVAILING THUNDER, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THEIR MAY ONLY BE
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE STORM COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STARTING
EARLY IN THE DAY WEST AND BY LATE MORNING EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERNS WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
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