191
FXUS63 KPAH 060922
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON - ALTHOUGH RAIN COOLED AIR MAY MITIGATE
THIS RISK SOMEWHAT. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY EMERGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY RISK,
BUT THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS ABOUT HEATING AND OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION GIVEN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
WITH THE PRE-SHORTWAVE CONVECTION LOCATION BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS
AS PULSE STORMS FORM FROM CGI TO WEST OF EVV HRRR/RAP HAVE
TRENDED WITH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER KS/OK
BRINGS IT IN ABOUT 11 AM, BY THEN RAP/HRRR SHOWS ABOUT 2500-3000
J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH WESTERLY 0-6KM SHEAR AT 30 KTS. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK BUT THAT EXTRA OOMPH IN CAPE MAY ALLOW
FOR A MORE ROBUST CORES THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ALLOWING FOR
SOME UPSCALING AND STORM ORGANIZATION. WILL BE TWEAKING THE
MESSAGING OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO INCREASE THE OVERALL TONE
OF THE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THREAT EMERGING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
A STATIONARY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE FRONT SITS FROM ABOUT POPLAR
BLUFF NORTHEASTWARD TO EVANSVILLE. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RUN FROM 70-73 DEGREES F. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS A
BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AT 18-20 KTS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT A
SUFFICIENT WESTERLY 30 KTS. A COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS HAVE STARTED
TO FORM IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THERE IS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
JET OVER SE KS AND SW MO THAT CONVECTION (MCS OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA) APPEARS TO HELP ENHANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN OUR LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ADVECT
SLIGHTLY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME LARGER SCALE ASCENT TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
WITH LITTLE CAPPING (AS EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS)
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE TOO GREAT TOO FAST FOR IDEAL
DESTABILIZATION. THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE ALSO LOOKS TO BE TOO
EARLY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING. THERE IS A WINDOW WHERE
SOME SEVERE WEATHER RISK (WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO) MAY EMERGE
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY THE WAVE IS
GOING TO BE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY AND THE THUNDERSTORM/RAIN
COVERAGE TOO GREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT EPISODE LIKE WHAT WOULD BE
RENDERED WITH 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HRRR/RAP KEEP SOME SCATTERED STORMS IN PLAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN AFTER THE WAVE PASSES WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
72-74 DEGREE PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
AREA AND THE PRESUMPTIVE SUNSHINE THAT MAY EMERGE BEHIND THIS
WEAK LEADING WAVE. THE BEST RISK PER SQUARE MILE IN OUR CWA IS
PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER LUNCH.
PWATS ARE STILL 1.9 TO 2.0" SO RAINFALL RATES WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
LEADING JET MAX ON THIS SYSTEM WORKS IN TANGENT WITH THE
APPROACHING HEIGHT TROUGH TO CREATE BROAD ASCENT MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE TOO
MUCH CONVECTION TO SOON FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION BUT
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING IN AN AREA GETTING AT LEAST
SOME STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WHAT LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW
TORNADOES AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER IN/IL. THE POSITION
OF THESE FIELDS SEEMS TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SEVERE
CELLS OR MCS POTENTIAL BUT VERY DIVERGENT CAM SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS ANOTHER FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER APPEARS TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. PWATS REMAIN VERY HIGH AND AT THE END OF A MULTIPLE DAY
EVENT FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE OF A CONCERN.
THE TREND KIND OF THEN SEEMS TO BE THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND
GETS OUT OF OUR HAIR FOR SUNDAY BUT THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, PARTICULARLY IN THE GFS GUIDANCE
THAT WOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME RAIN POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS ALSO
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT AND THE HUMIDITY TO
ITS SOUTH GOES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF, BUT BOTH SEEM A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION ARRIVE. THE GREATEST RISK IS FROM
FRIDAY AROUND 14Z TO AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. THAT IS A LONG PERIOD
WITH PREVAILING THUNDER, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THEIR MAY ONLY BE
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE STORM COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STARTING
EARLY IN THE DAY WEST AND BY LATE MORNING EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERNS WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...JGG
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...KC
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