897
FXUS63 KPAH 061917
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
217 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NOW THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY EMERGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY RISK,
BUT THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS ABOUT HEATING AND OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION GIVEN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
A REMNANT MCV FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST HAS LEAD TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER 80'S ATOP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF WEAK BUT APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE WIND FIELDS PER RECENT PAH VAD.
THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ACTIVITY LARGELY EXITS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AGAIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT MAKES A PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST YET ANOTHER MCS FEATURE BY SATURDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE
TO OUR WEST. THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME BUT PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE CAMS WOULD INDICATE THIS WOULD
LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH EASTWARD EXTEND INTO OUR REGION.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCS/MCV SEEMS
PROBABLE ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE AREA ALSO QUESTIONS ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF INSTABILITY BUT THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN.
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. A CHANCE FOR A
STRONG STORM OR TWO EXISTS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BUT AT THIS
TIME THINK THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN TO THE WEST. UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRY WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR MID TO LAKE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND MVFR/IFR CIG/VISBY WILL BE THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING THROUGH AR/MO
AND WILL SPARK RENEWED TSRA AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VISBY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AND MOVES EAST OF THE
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR MOST SITES TONIGHT. WHILE VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
SATURDAY MORNING, LOW CIGS MAY CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND
5 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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