828
FXUS63 KPAH 070637
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
137 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NARROW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE MO/TN BORDER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH.
- ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL POSING SOME RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN MANY PLACES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED.
- MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY
BENIGN FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY ABOUT 18-21Z TODAY. THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT/AREA DEMARCATING MORE STABLE AIR FROM MORE
UNSTABLE AIR IS WELL TO THE SOUTH IN ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI.
THIS FRONT WILL TREK NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT IT MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH
TODAY. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN ON AT LEAST A PERIPHERY OF A
ZONE THAT COULD SEE STRONGER CONVECTION BUT THE TREND IS PRETTY
OVERWHELMINGLY THAT MOST OF IT STAYS TO OUR SOUTH. WIND WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EVENT OF OVERACHIEVING HEATING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR NOW THOUGH CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF CLOUDS
LOOK PRETTY LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE EARLY MORNING AND THIS WAVE
IS AGAIN COMING IN A LITTLE TOO FAST TO UTILIZE IDEAL HEATING.
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY WITH THE
POPS HIGHEST ALONG THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER TODAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW FORMING UP OVER IL/IN WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS STIRRED UP THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY FAIRLY DRY TIL SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE STIRS THINGS UP A LITTLE. THE MOISTURE
RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND OUR
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. WE DRY OUT AGAIN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND STAY WARM BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HOT OR HUMID
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN WE START TO SEE A LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN
AND SHOWER CHANCES START TO CREEP UP. THE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL GETS
STRONGEST FOR RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY BUT ITS NOT
EXCEPTIONALLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WHERE BREAKS IN THE LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR; HOWEVER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. LIMITED
VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE BETWEEN 08-12Z SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON. OTHERWISE,
LOW STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING TRANSITIONS TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW
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