171
FXUS63 KPAH 072351
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE (25-50%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A
FEW GUSTY STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (40-80%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST, BUT A FEW GUSTY
STORMS WILL SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO SAY OF THESE STORMS WILL POSE A SEVERE RISK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY, TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CLIMB TO SUMMERTIME LEVELS
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
STUBBORN STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN KY/MO BORDERS
WILL FINALLY DEPART TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SW MO MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONGOING DEBRIS
CLOUDS/SHOWERS FROM A MID-SOUTH MCS WILL WANE THIS EVENING, BUT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND
INCREASING CIN, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY STORM OR TWO WITH
SMALL HAIL.
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, BUT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. AGAIN, THE SEVERE RISK SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
MARGINAL AT BEST, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN RISKS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS W KY, WITH THE SAME VERY SMALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT, A DEEP H5
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST,
BRINGING A BRIEF LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS AND A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
AN ACTIVE SW H5 FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY, AND A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS, BUT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK LIKELY AT TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES
(EVV/OWB). IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...KC
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