867
FXUS63 KPAH 081057
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST, BUT A FEW GUSTY STORMS WILL SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO SAY OF THESE STORMS WILL POSE A SEVERE RISK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY, TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CLIMB TO SUMMERTIME LEVELS
AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT OCCASIONALLY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST IN DAVIESS/MCLEAN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT SHOULD SWEEP OUT ENOUGH OF OUR
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STABILIZE THE REGION FOR A FEW
HOURS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN A LITTLE BETTER THAN ADVERTISED
TONIGHT PER PAH/HPX VWP BUT THIS CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE NORTH OF THAT BASED ON THE VWX VWP. MANAGED SOME WIND DAMAGE
AND SOME SHALLOW CIRCULATIONS WITH THESE CELLS THAT REQUIRE A
FAIRLY CLOSE WATCH EVEN NOW.
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY A STRONGER LONGER WAVE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE LIFT AND KINEMATICS BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND THIS ONE MEANS
MOISTURE RETURN IS MEAGER AT BEST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY
WORKING INTO THE LOW 60S FOR NOW. IF INSTABILITY OVERACHIEVES A
LITTLE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SNEAKER SEVERE THREAT. FOR
NOW THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY BENIGN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STRONGER TROUGH FINALLY GETS EVERYTHING CLEARED ALL THE WAY
OUT FOR A CHANGE AND A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY,
AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH WARM BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY.
WE GET A LITTLE SOUPIER BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST STARTS TO ORIENT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. WE ALSO START TO SEE A RETURN TO DAILY SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES WITH THIS SHIFT. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY HAS THE BEST
OVERALL RAIN CHANCE BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE DRIVING THIS AND
THOSE WOULD BE VERY UNLIKELY TO BE WELL MODELED AT THIS RANGE -
SO EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
SCATTERED LOW CLOUD BEHIND A FRONT SHOULD IMPROVE TO CLEAR
SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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