360
FXUS63 KPAH 231707
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1207 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PROLONGED
DURATION DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
THE H5 RIDGE IS 596-597 DM NOW AND HOLDS STRONG IN THE MID 590S
THRU MID WEEK, BREAKING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 590S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. NO OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF NOTE DETECTED, THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BUILDUP OF HEAT/HUMIDITY TO ALLOW FOR DAILY POPS
TO APPEAR PRIMARILY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, BUT ANY SUCH THAT DEVELOPS WILL OFFER ONLY A BRIEF,
TEMPORARY RESPITE FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THAT
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT HEADLINE THRU FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THERE BEGINS TO SHOW IN THE
MODELING SOME HEIGHTS FALLING, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES, PERHAPS NOT. THERE IS ENOUGH QUESTION
THERE THAT IT PRECLUDES US FROM EXTENDING THE PROLONGED DURATION
HEADLINE ANY MORE THAN FRIDAY, AT LEAST AT THIS WRITING; THAT MAY
NEED TO BE REVISITED AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECASTING WORKS BEST WITH THE SAME
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE. DIURNAL BASES FEW-SCT WILL
RANGE FROM 3.5K FT AGL EARLY TO 4.5K FT AGL LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/SOUTHERLY EXCEPTING AN ISOLATED, MAINLY HEAT
OF DAY SHOWER OR STORM THAT COULD DEVELOP NEARBY A TERMINAL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
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