702
FXUS63 KPAH 242332
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR DAILY PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107. THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DAILY ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING WILL PROVIDE BRIEF AND LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
WAVE. LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
- TRUE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WAVE STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A GREATER RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A BROAD 597 DAM RIDGE IS STRETCHED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BUBBLED UP (ACROSS SEMO, S IL,
AND FAR W KY). THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EACH DAY, STARTING LATE MORNING AND ENDING BY
EARLY EVENING. THE RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH FRIDAY, SO
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THEN. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN INCREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INCREASES AND THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. PWATS AROUND 2" WILL ALLOW SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME, DUE TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEING HIGHER DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S) WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 100 (AND LOCALLY ABOVE 105) THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. MINIMAL RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
PRIMARILY HOLDING IN THE MID 70S MOST NIGHTS.
TRUE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A FRONT MAKING
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH MORE TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEWPOINTS BELOW 70 DEGREES).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON'S SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, CALM WINDS,
SATURATED SOILS, AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS
WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06-13Z WINDOW. THE GREATEST
IMPACTS (MVFR/TEMPO IFR) WILL BE FROM 09-13Z. FOG WILL QUICKLY
MIX AWAY 13Z, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AGAIN AFTER 17Z. WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE SW AT 4-7 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS
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