229
FXUS63 KPAH 270309
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1009 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PROLONGED
DURATION DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND, BUT
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S) AND LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
TODAY MARKS DAY #6 WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR
MOST OF OUR REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN, WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
INITIAL VORTICITY LOBE MIGRATES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM ON THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE DAY. YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY MEANDER
TOWARDS US ON SUNDAY, BEFORE THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
EXCEED 2" OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL FROM ANY STORM. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHEAR THOUGH, SO STORMS WILL REMAIN QUITE PULSY.
ONE MORE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY. THE
INCREASED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HOWEVER,
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH (IN THE MID 70S) SO IT WILL STILL FEEL
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100. THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED
EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BUT IT MAY END UP JUST SHY OF
CRITERIA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE DRIER, LESS HUMID AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION, WHICH MAY KEEP LINGERING POPS GOING ON
TUESDAY (AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH). THERE STILL IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES DON'T COOL OFF MUCH (STILL UPPER
80S), IT WILL FEEL MORE TOLERABLE OUTSIDE (TYPICAL JULY HEAT). A
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS ARE FORECAST BEFORE RAIN CHANCES MAY CREEP BACK
INTO THE FORECAST BY THE 4TH OF JULY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOT OF
MODEL VARIABILITY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE RIDGE BUILDS
AGAIN. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR WE END UP WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE; HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT
CGI AND MVN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY BRUSH PAST THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT; OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER COVERAGE. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP DURING PEAK COVERAGE
TIMES. HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS MAY LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...KC
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