716
FXUS63 KPAH 280001
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING,
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND (MID 80S TO NEAR 90),
BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 80S.
- THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER HOT (LOWER 90S)
WITH A LOW CHANCE (30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN 7 STRAIGHT DAYS OF 100
DEGREE HEAT INDEX READINGS, CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH THOUGH (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S), SO IT WILL
STILL FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2",
MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, SO CONTINUE TO
DEAL WITH VERY PULSY CONVECTION. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG OR BRIEFLY
SEVERE STORM, BUT OVERALL THREAT FOR THAT IS QUITE LOW. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FROPA
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH (THANKS TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE). MAY FINALLY START TO GET LOWER
DEWPOINTS (BELOW 70 DEGREES) IN THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ONLY LAST ONE OR TWO DAYS THOUGH
BEFORE HIGHER HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN BY THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MID NEXT WEEK, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
MAY RETURN BY THE 4TH OF JULY ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH APPEARS TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS OUR
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT THAT WE ARE EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN
IN BETWEEN, HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 80S MID WEEK BEFORE NUDGING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF
THE STORMS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...KC
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