002
FXUS63 KPAH 281846
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
146 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED, AND AT TIMES NUMEROUS, SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND A 20% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AIDED BY PVA ALOFT LED TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
STABILIZED THINGS FOR THE MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN AREAS THAT HAVEN'T
RECEIVED ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK WHICH HELPS TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. PW'S REMAIN HIGH AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE FOCUSED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED FROM THE MODELS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THEN WHAT WE HAD THE
PAST WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80'S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE FAVORS A FRONT PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POPS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT WE SHOULD DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
BY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING WHICH WILL BRING ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90'S TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MOST TSRA COVERAGE HAS ENDED, AT LEAST NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS MOSTLY STABILIZED
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW CONFIDENCE BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CGI/PAH, AND PROB30'S FOR EVV/OWB.
MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA CHANCES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AROUND 5 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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