047
FXUS63 KPAH 290449
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED, AND AT TIMES NUMEROUS, SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND A 20% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AIDED BY PVA ALOFT LED TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
STABILIZED THINGS FOR THE MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN AREAS THAT HAVEN'T
RECEIVED ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK WHICH HELPS TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. PW'S REMAIN HIGH AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE FOCUSED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS BEING ADVERTISED FROM THE MODELS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THEN WHAT WE HAD THE
PAST WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80'S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE FAVORS A FRONT PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POPS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT WE SHOULD DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
BY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING WHICH WILL BRING ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90'S TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
UNSETTLED SUMMERTIME CONVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN COVERAGE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ107-108.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
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