817
FXUS63 KPAH 290642
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY STILL LOOKS SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND A 20% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WITH PWAT'S RUNNING AOA 2", LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARD TODAY. WHILE MODEL GENERATED AVERAGE
QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONCERNING, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
MAY BE, ESP IF THEY FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
THOROUGH SATURATION FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION. WITH AN H8
RIDGE OF THETA-E SETTING UP IN THAT VICINITY, POTENTIALLY
AGGRAVATING THE HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL, WE
CONTINUE OUR FLOOD WATCH IN THE OZARKS PER COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS
AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER CONVECTION THERE, REPEATING OVER
GROUNDS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL RECENTLY.
AFTER TODAY, OUR EYES TURN TO THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH THAT
DROPS DOWN AND MAKES ITS APPROACH MONDAY. POPS AGAIN SPIKE, ESP
DURING THE DAY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING REMAINS. WITH THE FRONT'S ENTRY AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT DRIVING IT, WE'LL SEE SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ENTER
THE FORECAST PICTURE WITH A 5% MARGINAL RISK A STRONGER STORM
MAY PRODUCE SUCH.
FROPA MAY TAKE/LINGER POPS THRU TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING THEM OUT.
DEW POINTS FALL BACK INTO THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE
MID WEEK IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER, BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS RESPOND BY RETURNING TO
THE 90S AND DEW POINTS FOLLOW TO THE 70S AGAIN, BUT THAT'S NOT
UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING
HEAT/HUMIDITY, SMALL/DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY POPS RETURN
THEN TOO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, NOT DISSIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
OTHER THAN PRE DAWN FOG POTENTIAL, THE STORMS OFFER THE BEST
CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SAID RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS AND SHOULD BE BRIEF BUT EXIST
NONETHELESS AND SHOULD DEFINITELY BE INCLUDED IN FLIGHT
PLANNING AS THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH REMAINS HIGH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ107-108.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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