453
FXUS63 KPAH 300627
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
127 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY BRING A MARGINAL
RISK OF FLOODING RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- A DRIER TREND CONTINUES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
WITH DEEP, RICH, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTIVE UPPER ENERGY THEREOF, WE'LL
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TODAY, ESP
AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. PW'S REMAIN AOA 2" SO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL INCLUDE A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT THAT'LL BE MOSTLY
FOR A REPEAT STORM OR STALLED STORM SCENARIO, WHICH WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED, THUS PRECLUDING SWEEPING BROADER SCALE HEADLINES AT
THIS WRITING. A LOCALLY STRONGER STORM MAY SEE A GUSTY WIND
THREAT (5% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FROPA TONIGHT BUT MAY LINGER POPS
INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF FOLLOWS SOON THERAFTER WITH ITS
PASSAGE. ONCE THAT OCCURS, WE GO DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER FOR
THE MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. AFTER THE MID WEEK RESPITE, WE RETURN TO SEASONAL
90/70 ON HIGHS/DEW POINTS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN DAILY
(MAINLY DIURNAL) POPS LIKEWISE RETURN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND WILL SPIKE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE HIGHEST WITH STORMS, BUT PRE DAWN
FOG MAY OFFER ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS AT TIMES AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE TONIGHT, ULTIMATELY DRYING THINGS OUT
AND RETURNING A RESTRICTION-FREE FORECAST TO THE TERMINALS WITH
TIME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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