202
FXUS63 KPAH 301646
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY BRING A MARGINAL
RISK OF FLOODING RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- A DRIER TREND CONTINUES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
WITH DEEP, RICH, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTIVE UPPER ENERGY THEREOF, WE'LL
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TODAY, ESP
AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. PW'S REMAIN AOA 2" SO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL INCLUDE A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT THAT'LL BE MOSTLY
FOR A REPEAT STORM OR STALLED STORM SCENARIO, WHICH WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED, THUS PRECLUDING SWEEPING BROADER SCALE HEADLINES AT
THIS WRITING. A LOCALLY STRONGER STORM MAY SEE A GUSTY WIND
THREAT (5% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FROPA TONIGHT BUT MAY LINGER POPS
INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF FOLLOWS SOON THEREAFTER WITH ITS
PASSAGE. ONCE THAT OCCURS, WE GO DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER FOR
THE MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. AFTER THE MID WEEK RESPITE, WE RETURN TO SEASONAL
90/70 ON HIGHS/DEW POINTS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN DAILY
(MAINLY DIURNAL) POPS LIKEWISE RETURN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LOW CIGS (MVFR/IFR) HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT, ESPECIALLY AT
KEVV/KOWB, BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND 19Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER COVERAGE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT (00-07Z). THEREFORE, WITH CHANCES TOO LOW AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT TSRA MENTION OUT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NW TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST KY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FCTER
AVIATION...SP
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