978
FXUS63 KPAH 011847
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAY
RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90) ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WE HEAT BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO NUDGE UPWARDS WITH
HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 95 TO 102 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
NORTHERLY FLOW IS USHERING IN A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE VERY
HUMID AIRMASS WHICH HAS PLAGUED OUR REGION FOR 10 DAYS. DEW POINTS
HAVE ALREADY MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S (EXCEPT ACROSS
WEST KY). THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEP
UPDATE...ER MIXING WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
REMAIN QUITE WARM IN THE UPPER 80S, EVEN PUSHING 90 IN SOME
LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY. LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S WILL BE A NICE
CHANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES AWAY. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD BACK IN BY FRIDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO NUDGE BACK UP
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TICK UP WITH
DEW POINTS NOSING BACK ABOVE 70 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH, RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON
FRIDAY TO AROUND 100 BY SUNDAY.
MODELS AREN'T IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST SHOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH AN UPPER
WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WHETHER THIS BOUNDARY ACTUALLY DIPS SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR AREA
IS IN QUESTION, BUT THE SIGNAL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR NOW. MOST
GUIDANCE TRENDS TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
WELL (ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL NEXT TUES/WED TO REALLY
COOL US DOWN BELOW 90 AGAIN).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WEST KY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CU FIELD BASES LIFT TO 4-5KFT.
PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
NORTH WINDS 6-9 KTS TODAY BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT TOMORROW (3-4 KTS) AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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