029
FXUS63 KPAH 031150
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S AT
DISCUSSION TIME WITH NEARLY CALM WIND. SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY PERIOD AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 90'S.
BY SUNDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS LOWER
HEIGHTS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BEFORE
NEARLY STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT AND
FURTHER SUPPORT FROM TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR. PW'S RISE TO AROUND 2-2.1" NEXT WEEK
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DON'T SEE
ANY SIGNALS FOR A MORE HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
MORNING FOG AT CGI/PAH/MVN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. FEW TO SCT CU IS EXPECTED
BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONAL FOG POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT MVN WHERE MVFR MENTION WAS INCLUDED LATE
IN THE PERIOD - 04/09Z-12Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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