844
FXUS63 KPAH 041737
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY ONWARD WITH DAILY RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES.
- AFTER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW TO MID 90'S TODAY AND WIDESPREAD MID 90'S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
STALLING OUT. UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO RESULT IN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PEAK CHANCES OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
VFR. FEW-SCT CU WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 5 MPH. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM AFTER SUNSET, THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING OF
PATCHY FOG BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...WFO LMK
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