014
FXUS63 KPAH 050718
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, HUMID AND MAINLY DRY TODAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE PENNYRILE.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOWER HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE. MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENNYRILE AREA. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S. INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE
TO 100. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AGAIN.
WE SEE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWER HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WEST BY MID WEEK WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH CHANCES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEK BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED FLOODING THREAT AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND LINGERING SMOKE FROM THE 4TH OF
JULY WILL GIVE WAY TO PATCHY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT KEVV/KOWB TO INCLUDE TAF MENTION DUE TO
DRIER AIR, BUT THE CHANCE IS NON-ZERO. AFTER SUNRISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND
5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. SKIES TURN CLEAR AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH BETWEEN 6-8 KTS, TURNING LIGHT
AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DW
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