921
FXUS63 KPAH 060734
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES.
- ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOVING
INTO THE UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITHIN A REGION OF LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES TODAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE STORMS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING HOURS.
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALOFT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK, LOW HEIGHTS STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE LEADING TO DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES PERSISTING. RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW BUT THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE HIGH PW'S AND
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND/OR TRAINING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A BIT OVER THE WEEK GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
RAIN/STORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
MVFR FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPAH AND SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON'T HANG OUT ALL NIGHT. KMVN IS NEAR SATURATION AND JUST A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE, SO THROUGH IN SOME
MVFR FOG THERE UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE AROUND
SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXING IN THE
MORNING AND SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS OR A LITTLE HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED TSRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. STUCK WITH THE
PROB30 TREATMENT, 18Z-24Z AT KCGI AND KMVN, AND 21Z-03Z AT THE
OTHER SITES.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DRS
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