313
FXUS63 KPAH 061129
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES.
- ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOVING
INTO THE UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITHIN A REGION OF LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT FLOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES TODAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE STORMS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING HOURS.
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALOFT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK, LOW HEIGHTS STILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE LEADING TO DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES PERSISTING. RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW BUT THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE HIGH PW'S AND
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND/OR TRAINING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A BIT OVER THE WEEK GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
RAIN/STORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 7-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 17
KTS AT MVN. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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