756  
FXUS63 KPAH 071700  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1200 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN  
AND STORM CHANCES.  
 
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S. TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK THE LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
WEAK TROUGHING CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH  
BROAD LIFT KEEPING A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING  
ACROSS. THE CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG  
FROM DEVELOPING. A STALLED FRONT WAS NOTED TO OUR NORTH, FROM  
KANSAS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. WEAK  
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE  
IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK  
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE  
REGION WILL COINCIDE WITH A DESTABILIZING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,  
AS A SURFACE FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE  
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, WITH COVERAGE PEAKING  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S  
WILL STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
 
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEK.  
ON TUESDAY, WE SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT AMPLIFIES AS IT  
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. WE WILL SEE SOME JET FORCING BY THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS THAT WILL PROVIDE INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING  
AND INCREASED SHEAR. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DAY 2 MARGINAL  
RISK OVER MOST OF THE REGION. BEYOND TUESDAY, WEAK UPPER  
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,  
SUPPORTING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWING SEVERAL LOW-  
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. PERSISTENT  
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR  
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT  
MORE DIFFUSE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN BUT  
TRANSIENT VORT MAXIMA MAY PROVIDE BRIEF PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT  
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A  
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS  
THE HIGHEST IN KEVV/KOWB EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST COVERAGE,  
BUT STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCGI/KPAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND  
DOWNBURST. VSBY AND CIG REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO BE PROBABLE, WITH  
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE WEST BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT.  
 
WINDS QUICKLY TURN CALM TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO  
PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS PROGGED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS  
WESTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THAT WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY  
OF KPAH/KOWB. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT  
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...AD  
AVIATION...DW  
 
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