370
FXUS63 KPAH 071830
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY ALSO CAUSE A
BRIEF DOWNBURST.
- HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES AGAIN, BUT THE
DURATION WILL BE SHORT WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
A SERIES OF 500 MB IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CAUSE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA THAT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0-7.5
C/KM, AND A MAX THETA-E DIFFERENCE AROUND 25K, THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. DUE TO THE LACK OF
SHEAR AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING, ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS
UNLIKELY AND WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY, DESTABILIZATION WILL BE PROBABLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN AS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE FA. THE OVERALL PARAMETERS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO TODAY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLATED STRONGER STORM AS
THE WINDS ALOFT AT THE JET LEVEL ARE EXTREMELY WEAK.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THE LOW-LEVEL DEEP MOISTURE MAY BACK OFF A BIT
ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME RELIEF; HOWEVER, A VORT MAX THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO RETURN, BRINGING ADDITIONAL DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK REMAIN PERSISTENT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT THE
DURATION WILL BE SHORT WITH IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
THE HIGHEST IN KEVV/KOWB EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST COVERAGE,
BUT STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCGI/KPAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND
DOWNBURST. VSBY AND CIG REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO BE PROBABLE, WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE WEST BETWEEN 5-7 KTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
WINDS QUICKLY TURN CALM TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO
PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS PROGGED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THAT WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY
OF KPAH/KOWB. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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