319
FXUS63 KPAH 080444
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY ALSO CAUSE A
BRIEF DOWNBURST.
- HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES AGAIN, BUT THE
DURATION WILL BE SHORT WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
A SERIES OF 500 MB IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
CAUSE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA THAT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0-7.5
C/KM, AND A MAX THETA-E DIFFERENCE AROUND 25K, THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. DUE TO THE LACK OF
SHEAR AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING, ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS
UNLIKELY AND WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY, DESTABILIZATION WILL BE PROBABLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN AS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE FA. THE OVERALL PARAMETERS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO TODAY TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLATED STRONGER STORM AS
THE WINDS ALOFT AT THE JET LEVEL ARE EXTREMELY WEAK.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THE LOW-LEVEL DEEP MOISTURE MAY BACK OFF A BIT
ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME RELIEF; HOWEVER, A VORT MAX THAT DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO RETURN, BRINGING ADDITIONAL DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK REMAIN PERSISTENT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT THE
DURATION WILL BE SHORT WITH IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED FROM KCGI ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND
ACROSS MORE OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE
200-500 FT RANGE BEFORE SCOURING OUT BY AROUND 14Z. LIGHT WINDS
ARE ALSO PRESENT, SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN TODAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. HOWEVER, THE
STRATUS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SPATIAL SCOPE AND OVERALL DENSITY
OF THE FOG. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LEADING TO HEAT OF DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...SP
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