383
FXUS63 KPAH 121953
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SCATTERED DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
INDIANA, THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2500J/KG WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS, BUT THE SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK, SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
8C/KM AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1300J/KG ARE FOCUSED OVER WEST
KENTUCKY, SO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD SEEM TO INCREASE AS
THE STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE STORMS LINED UP EAST TO WEST FROM CAPE COUNTY TO
WEBSTER COUNTY, THERE IS ALSO A SOMEWHAT HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, IS BASICALLY A BROKEN RECORD
WITH NEAR NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. GREATER
COVERAGE IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PROVIDES A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY TRY TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER THE
QUAD STATE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY
PROVIDE FOR A FEW DRY DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 15KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH 21Z.
ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS MODERATE
AT BEST, SO STUCK WITH PROB30S THROUGH 23Z OR 00Z. STRONG WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS, ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN. SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT GET SIGNIFICANT RAIN TODAY, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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