616
FXUS63 KPAH 131050
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SCATTERED DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS SEASONABLY WEAK THIS MORNING. A VERY
MODEST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL
INTERACT WITH A RESIDUAL WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A
LITTLE MORE JET-LEVEL ASCENT THAN WHAT WE HAD ON SATURDAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH PEAK HEATING
EXPECTED TO YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHEAR REMAINS
EXTREMELY WEAK SO STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
THERMODYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND WHERE THE TORNADO/HAIL RISK APPEARS
MINIMAL. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT ONCE AGAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TO
THE EAST AT 15-20 KTS BUT ANY REPETITIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE
PUSHING OUR FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS. THE JET-LEVEL ASCENT REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z MONDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
GOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
THEN WE SIT IN A VERY STAGNANT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. PRESUMABLY A FEW WAVES WILL WORK DOWN THAT REGIME HERE
AND THERE, DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, A LITTLE STRONGER WAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
INCREASED COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF STORMS. THE CLOUDS/RAIN
SHOULD PREVENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS DESPITE THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BECOME THE FOCUS OF THE DAY WITH ACTIVITY
STARTING TO FIRE UP BY 17-18Z. PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
DOWNBURSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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