828
FXUS63 KPAH 152004
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONGEST STORMS POSE AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB OVER 100 DEGREES TOMORROW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME DAYS MAY EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH
A GENERALLY WEAK PATTERN ALOFT THAT FEATURES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE PLAINS AND A WEAK 40 ISH KNOT JET OVER OUR REGION. THIS
COUPLED WITH JUICY GULF MOISTURE, GIVING US PWATS AROUND 2.1 TO 2.2
MAKES FOR SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
NORTHEAST AND GETS REABSORBED INTO THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
BEHIND IT IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT'S
PULLING A FRONT THROUGH THAT SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. WITH MID TO UPPER 70S DEW POINTS STARTING TOMORROW, HEAT
INDICES WILL SURPASS 100 AND COULD NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY, BUT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN ALOFT STAYS RATHER STAGNANT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL DIURNAL CUMULUS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KTS
AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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