535
FXUS63 KPAH 161710
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1210 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST STORMS POSE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
POPCORN CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM THE BUILDUP OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
WILL RECUR DAILY DIURNALLY. BUT OVERALL CHANCES WILL PROP UP AS
HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW'S AOA
2" WILL ABOUND IN A DAILY/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ANYWHERE FROM
2-4K J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO. IF A STRONGER STORM
COLLAPSES, CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS, ALTHOUGH OVERALL, SHEAR IN THE COLUMN REMAINS ON THE SOFT
SIDE FOR SVR WX SUPPORT/ORGANIZATION AS A WHOLE.
BEYOND THE DAILY RECURRING CHANCES WILL BE THE DAILY CHALLENGES
WITH HEAT/HUMIDITY, APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR MANY ALMOST DAILY. HEADLINES LIKE TODAY MAY NECESSITATE
REPEATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE ENSUING DAYS, BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH HEDGE OF MARGINALITY THAT A PROLONGED OR
EXPANSIVE BLANKET HEADLINE IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS WRITING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
PATCHY MORNING FOG MAY OFFER POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS OR
LOW BASE MENTIONS, AS TOO DOES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
OTHERWISE DIURNAL LOW VFR BASED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DAILY IN A
WEAK OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ084-085-
088>090-092>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ086-087-100-
109>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>009.
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