669
FXUS63 KPAH 170459
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST STORMS POSE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
POPCORN CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM THE BUILDUP OF HEAT/HUMIDITY
WILL RECUR DAILY DIURNALLY. BUT OVERALL CHANCES WILL PROP UP AS
HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW'S AOA
2" WILL ABOUND IN A DAILY/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ANYWHERE FROM
2-4K J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO. IF A STRONGER STORM
COLLAPSES, CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS, ALTHOUGH OVERALL, SHEAR IN THE COLUMN REMAINS ON THE SOFT
SIDE FOR SVR WX SUPPORT/ORGANIZATION AS A WHOLE.
BEYOND THE DAILY RECURRING CHANCES WILL BE THE DAILY CHALLENGES
WITH HEAT/HUMIDITY, APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR MANY ALMOST DAILY. HEADLINES LIKE TODAY MAY NECESSITATE
REPEATING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE ENSUING DAYS, BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH HEDGE OF MARGINALITY THAT A PROLONGED OR
EXPANSIVE BLANKET HEADLINE IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS WRITING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG; OTHERWISE, DIURNAL SCATTERED CU WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES, A
SCATTERED BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE AFTER 19Z, BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE TO SEE LIMITED COVERAGE DEVELOP EARLIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE WEST BETWEEN 4-7 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ081>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
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