904
FXUS63 KPAH 180400
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS BEGINS ALMOST
DAILY AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND BUT PARTICULARLY FOR THE NEW WEEK
COMING AS THE HEAT WILL ONLY BUILD AND GET HOTTER AND
STICKIER AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES PEAK THIS WEEKEND, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG OUR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING
AREA PERIPHERY WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON SWELL OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. PW'S HOVERING
AROUND 2" MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A PRIMARY HAZARD, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY IF A STORM STAYS OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH OR
REPEATS OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS TO SAY THAT IT IS PROBABLY
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FULL-AREA FLOOD WATCH, BUT NONETHELESS,
ISOLATED REPORTS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST A STRONGER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL MAY ALLOW FOR A MARGINAL
RISK OF A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUST, SHOULD ONE COLLAPSE
JUST RIGHT.
IT APPEARS POPS PEAK DAILY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PEAK
HEATING, AND THEY'LL LIKEWISE PEAK THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE
BOUNDARY IS IN PLAY AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSITIVE
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION NOTED WITHIN THE STREAMLINES OF
THE UPPER FLOW OVERTOP THE PAH FA. THIS OCCURS IN SYNCHRONICITY
WITH THE WOBBLE DOWN OF THE BOUNDARY AS A COUPLE PIECES OF WHAT
LOOK TO BE MORE ORGANIZED WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE
WABASH AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. WE THINK MOST OF THAT ACTION
OCCURS SATURDAY SO WON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT DAY BE THE
BETTER DAY OF PLAY FOR STORMS VS SUNDAY, WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
BE IN SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY MODE WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS. ONCE
THAT DOES HIT (BUILDING HEIGHTS), WHICH IS DEFINITELY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN IT JUST RAMPS UP IN EARNEST WITH DAILY HEAT
INDICES SWELLING INTO HEADLINE CATEGORY MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. AT EVV, MVN, AND OWB, LOW STRATUS (IFR TO LIFR) AND
MVFR TO IFR FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT AND LIFTING. FURTHER
SOUTH, MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT CGI AND PAH ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
CLOUD BASES AROUND 500FT. MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AND HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 24Z. CALM WINDS
WILL BE BECOME LIGHT FROM THE W-SW FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
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