979
FXUS63 KPAH 181041
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
541 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR DANGEROUS HEAT IMPACTS
THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
A PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 115, POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 120 BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DRY. HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER A SHORT DURATION
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A BRIEF
DOWNBURST BEING THE MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE FA AS AN ELONGATED IMPULSE AT 500 MB PROVIDES
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, DANGEROUS
HEAT IMPACTS ARE PROGGED AGAIN DUE TO AMPLE WATER VAPOR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH SFC MIXING RATIOS PEAKING AROUND 21 G/KG. WENT
WITH THE RAP13 FOR DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS TRANSLATES
TO HEAT INDICES RISING ABOVE 105 AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS NOT PREVENTED THE FA FROM REACHING
CRITERIA THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE CAMS AGAIN ARE HANDLING THE CI THIS AFTERNOON POORLY AND HOW
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO
FOCUS SOUTH OF THE AFORMENTIONED BOUNDARY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/ARW SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A CLUSTER LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT
ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SPC IN THEIR D1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS THE PAH CWA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN CONCERN STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH A BRIEF STRONG STORM DUE TO 900-1300
J/KG OF DCAPE, 8.0-9.0 C/KM SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES, AND MAX THETA-E
DIFFERENT OF 35K. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THAT CAN LEAD TO SHORT DURATION POOR DRAINAGE FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING THE RISK OF GREATER
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY TREND LOWER ON SUNDAY THAT WILL YIELD MORE
SPARSE COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HEIGHT RISES ALOFT.
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, MOST OF THE FA WILL BEGIN TO TREND
COMPLETELY DRY AS A 597 DAM RIDGE BUILDS IN THE VICINITY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEATWAVE THAT WILL BUILD ON
SATURDAY. IT IS PROBABLE THAT ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED, WITH 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. DAILY
HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 115 DEGREES ARE PROGGED, POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 120 DEGREES LATER NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
PATCHY FOG AND SCATTERED LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING FROM 20Z TO 05Z.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND AN ISOLATED
MICROBURST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS.
STORMS DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ088>090-092>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KYZ001>013-016-017-020>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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